The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have a long-term impact on the financial life of congregations, regardless of their denomination, size or makeup. In my conversations with pastors and leaders across the movement, it seems there’s a common denominator among those who aren’t experiencing the hardest and most immediate blows: margin. The congregations that went into the pandemic with some margin—financial, emotional, time, leadership, etc.—have been better equipped to weather the current conditions than those operating under tighter constraints.

It’s left me wondering: How can churches survive and even thrive in a post-pandemic landscape?

No one knows the answers, but here are some observations about how we all, as leaders in the Church of God, can respond to these unprecedented times in the local church.

What Churches are Facing

According to the 2018-2019 National Congregations Study, about a third of all congregations have no savings. It also found just 20 percent streamed their services and 48 percent were able to accept donations electronically, making it more challenging to serve the faithful and gather their donations during the virus shutdown. The blow has been hardest on the nation’s many small congregations. Some experts think the coronavirus could reshape the country’s religious landscape and wipe out many small houses of worship. Others say the virus may speed up a cruel evolution — the end of congregations that have not embraced technology for functions like streaming services, paying bills, and using cloud computing. That includes congregations with members who can’t afford devices or connectivity. The virus is also forcing a reconciliation about the way younger Americans give — sporadically, not weekly as older congregants do.

The recent deep V-shaped dive into a recession (but just as quickly recovered) still has an impact. Research from previous recessions shows that their impact is mostly negative, as people simply have less money to give. There’s often a hope that recessions and their associated struggles may draw people back to places of worship, but it’s actually just the opposite. Recessions are very hard on churches and even more so when entire industries (sports, travel, and entertainment) evaporate for an unknown time-horizon. When 10-15% of the economy is essentially shut down, it will have an effect for years to come.

I started digging into the research on this subject. Below are some key observations by leading faith leaders taken from the Faith and Leadership website.

One-third of U.S. churches could be out of business by 2025. LifeWay Research says 5% of U.S. churches will close within the year because of the pandemic. Estimates point to one-quarter to one-third of churches operating on thin or no reserves.
Now more than ever, churches that shy away from the subject of stewardship/money do so at their own risk. It is crucial for churches to lift up online giving not just as a convenience but as a theologically sound way to give. Managing how people give isn’t as pivotal as articulating why their giving is a vital part of a life of faith. The pandemic just raised the stakes.
There are wealthy churches with strong financial reserves and the ability to survive even COVID-19. Then there are smaller, struggling churches whose members now and in generations past have been held back by racial and economic injustice. Some express concern that we will come out on the other side of this and there will only be wealthy churches. If the wealthy don’t reach out beyond their congregations, denominations, and narrow self-interest to help the poor and vulnerable, these marginalized churches will suffer -- or die.
Churches will have to become leaner organizations after the pandemic. And it’s not just small churches at risk. Larger churches with big buildings and big staff will face big financial challenges, too.
Although there is not research that examines the correlation between ethnicity and church giving during the coronavirus pandemic, African American churches seem to be the hardest hit. The COVID-19 hospitalization rate for African Americans is approximately 4.5 times that of white Americans, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Anecdotal evidence suggests the disproportionate impact of the coronavirus has taken a toll on Black churches, many of which struggled to apply or receive stimulus grants. The pandemic caught many traditional Black churches off-guard because they lacked a digital footprint that permitted them to move worship and giving online with ease.
Church leaders now see the need to build up reserves for the next crisis that puts church life in peril. Should you have a month’s worth of money in the bank? A year’s worth? These questions can no longer be tabled for another day.

Two Ways Churches Can Respond

It is widely believed that COVID-19 will force already struggling churches to lock their doors five to 10 years earlier than they otherwise might have. But at the same time, it is hoped it will stir those churches to seize this unprecedented opportunity to embrace change. When the full and partial shutdowns are over, there are at least two ways such churches can respond:

Offer a long, slow resistance to change, mired in the legitimate grief of losing the way church has always been.
Rally around the need for dramatic change and identify a church’s core purpose.

How might a church choose the latter? By focusing on our mission outside the church rather than difficulties within the church. Be willing to adapt, whether that involves the size and responsibilities of church staff, how the buildings and campus are used, or how the church can make itself invaluable to its neighbors.

Here are four options for churches facing difficult decisions after the pandemic:

Merge with one or more other congregations
Become a satellite campus of a larger church
Transform into a house church, where remaining members meet in each other’s homes
Close and disband

Some pastors see the virus as a divinely inspired challenge, a chance to refocus on the core of their faith, to purify, to pray in the quiet, to worry less about building funds and costly programming and to think more about getting out and helping the needy, and to think about evangelizing. Local churches can lead the way to show their communities what ‘love your neighbor as yourself’ really looks like.

Yes, programs and facilities are a part of many churches. But when they’re stripped away, we can reorient around the true function of the Church. The peripherals never compelled anyone into their faith. It’s always been the central message of hope and the spirit of community—the things even global pandemics can’t take away.

Can we build margin where it truly matters and lean deeply—with faith— into our original charge and mission?

I believe we can and will.